Environmental impact
How has Scotland's climate changed?
- Scotland’s 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1997. The average temperature in the last decade (2010-2019) was around 0.7°C warmer than the 1961-1990 average.
- There has been an increase in rainfall over Scotland in the past few decades, with an increasing proportion coming from heavy rainfall events. The average year in the last decade (2010-2019) was 9 % wetter than the 1961-1990 average.
- Average sea level around the UK has risen by approximately 1.4 mm/year since the start of the 20th century.
How will Scotland’s climate change in future?
- Scotland will experience warmer, wetter winters, with more intense rainfall events. By 2050 under a low emissions scenario, average winters are projected to be around 8% wetter and 1 degree warmer. By 2080 under a high emissions scenario average winters are projected to be around 19% wetter and 2.7 degrees warmer.
- Scotland will experience hotter, drier summers, with greater extremes. By 2050 under a low emissions scenario, average summers are projected to be around 1.2 degrees warmer and 7% drier. By 2080 under a high emissions scenario average summers are projected to be around 3 degrees warmer and 18% drier.
- Sea levels will continue to rise around Scotland’s coast. By 2050 under a low global emissions scenario, sea levels in Edinburgh are projected to be around 12cm higher. By 2080 under a high emission scenario sea level in Edinburgh is projected to increase by around 38 cm.
Impacts of climate change
Some impacts of climate change on global sea level and ice sheets are now effectively irreversible on a human timescale.
- The rate of sea level rise has doubled since 1993, reaching a new record high in 2023, reflecting continued ocean warming as well as melting glaciers and ice sheets.
- Antarctic sea ice extent reached a record low in February 2023 (since satellite records began in 1979).
- In 2023, glaciers in western North America and the European Alps had an extreme melt season. Swiss glaciers lost around 10 % of their remaining volume in the last 2 years.
2021 saw record breaking heatwaves, devastating wildfires and flooding events across the globe. This pattern persisted in 2022.
Extreme weather and climate events continued to have major impacts across the world in 2023, affecting water and food security as well as people’s health and well-being.
- Flooding associated with extreme rainfall from cyclones affected many parts of the world, including Libya, Bangladesh, Myanmar and southeast Africa.
- Extreme heat also affected many parts of the world; some of the most significant heatwaves were in southern Europe and north Africa.
- Long term drought persisted in northwest Africa and parts of the Iberian Peninsula as well as parts of central and southwest Asia.
- Drought intensified in parts of Central America, South America and southern USA.
- Wildfires in Hawaii, Canada and Europe led to loss of life, the destruction of homes and large-scale air pollution.
The WMO updated its Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water-related hazards in 2023. The key findings are summarised in a storyboard.
More information on the impacts of climate change in Europe can be found in the State of Climate in Europe 2022 report and storyboard.
Impacts of climate change in Scotland include increases in flood risk, coastal change, damage to buildings and infrastructure, and increased prevalence of pests and diseases in the natural environment.
Recent research on the potential impacts of climate change on Scotland’s Natural Capital warns that increased water scarcity could impact food production, damage the ecology of our rivers and undermine efforts to restore peatlands, while increasing winter rainfall could increase the risk of flooding. The trends of increased warming and reduced rainfall in the spring and summer will also increase wildfire risk.
2023 was a year of extremes in Scotland, with a significant water scarcity situation developing in some areas in June while extreme rainfall events caused flooding and landslides in October.
Hundreds of homes were flooded, roads were closed, rail services were disrupted, and millions of pounds of crops were lost.
The Met office in collaboration with the BBC have created a climate change visualisation tool where you can find out more about climate change in your local area.
Climate change is also a key driver of the nature emergency – it is the single greatest threat to Scotland’s habitats, whether they’re found on our mountain tops or our sea beds. Some habitats will be directly affected. More often, climate change will alter the intricate ecological balances that let plants and animals grow and thrive.
What can we do?
- Choose Public Transport: Prefer walking, cycling, or public transportation over personal vehicles.
- Support Green Accommodations: Stay in eco-friendly hotels with strong environmental policies.
- Reduce Plastic Use: Use reusable bottles, cups, and bags.
- Eat Locally and Seasonally: Opt for local produce and reduce meat consumption.
- Conserve Water and Energy: Fix leaks, install water-saving fixtures, and use energy-efficient appliances.
- Recycle and Compost: Manage waste responsibly by recycling and composting.
- Advocate for Environmental Policies: Support and advocate for sustainable practices and policies.
- Engage in Responsible Tourism: Choose activities that do not harm the environment and support conservation efforts.
